What Happens From a Free Hit?

Let’s have a look at how good a free hit is to the batting side. Given that you know the bowler can’t dismiss you, how effectively do sides deal with the free runs that (theoretically) should ensue.

Naturally my point of call for this was the 2018 Kia Super League, as it gives us a reasonable number of games to look at.

The only no-ball that is not punished by a free hit is the bouncer over head height. The ball by ball data doesn’t have anything noting free hits (technically making this a “ball after a no-ball” analysis), but since this is the best data we have, we can roll with it, the stats for the batting side looks like:

Runs	Balls	Runs per ball
46	20	2.3

So a no ball occurs about every one and a half games and goes for 2.3 runs a ball. This equates to 13.8 runs per over, which is a run a ball higher than the tournament average of ~7.50 which makes sense as it’s quite hard to be dismissed from a free hit.

Also keep in mind we’re not including anything that happened off the original no-ball so you can add at least one run to those stats.

Now if we look at the individual sides batting and bowling off free hits we can see how well a side can capitalise on these free runs.

Batting	Runs	Balls	Runs per ball
Storm	13	4	3.25
Diamonds	9	3	3
Stars	7	3	2.33
Thunder	6	3	2
Vipers	6	3	2
Lightning	5	4	1.25

Bowling	Runs	Balls	Runs per ball
Lightning	1	3	0.33
Stars	5	5	1
Thunder	1	1	1
Vipers	7	4	1.75
Storm	22	5	4.40
Diamonds	10	2	5

Unsurprisingly the Storm were the best side batting side in this situation given their quick scoring thanks to their dynamic top order. But they were also the 2nd worst side with the ball, showing up a potential weakness.

The bowling stats add to the idea that bowlers can win you t20, as the two finalists (Lightning and eventual winners the Stars) were the best two sides defending free hits.

But the takeaway from this probably is, don't bowl no balls in the first place...